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Forecasting Solar Power Generation Utilizing Machine Learning Models in Lubbock

Afshin Balal, Yaser Pakzad Jafarabadi, Ayda Demir, Morris Igene, Michael Giesselmann, Stephen Bayne

Abstract


Solar energy is a widely accessible, clean, and sustainable energy source. Solar power harvesting in order to generate electricity on smart grids is essential in light of the present global energy crisis. However, the highly variable nature of solar radiation poses unique challenges for accurately predicting solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation. Factors such as cloud cover, atmospheric conditions, and seasonal variations significantly impact the amount of solar energy available for conversion into electricity. Therefore, it is essential to precisely estimate the output of solar power in order to assess the potential of smart grids. This paper presents a study that utilizes various machine learning models to predict solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation in Lubbock, Texas. Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R² metrics are utilized to demonstrate the performance of each model. The results show that the Random Forest Regression (RFR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models outperformed the other models, with a MSE of 2.06% and 2.23% and R² values of 0.977 and 0.975, respectively. In addition, RFR and LSTM demonstrate their capability to capture the intricate patterns and complex relationships inherent in solar power generation data. The developed machine learning models can aid solar PV investors in streamlining their processes and improving their planning for the production of solar energy.

 

Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-07-04-02

Full Text: PDF


Keywords


Forecasting; Solar Power Generation; Machine Learning Models; Mean Squared Error; R² Metric.

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Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-07-04-02

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Copyright (c) 2023 Afshin Balal, Yaser Pakzad Jafarabadi, Ayda Demir, Igene Morris, Michael Giesselmann, Stephen Bayne