Probabilistic Analysis Depending on the Distance from A COVID-19 Outbreak

Yupaporn Areepong, Rapin Sunthornwat


COVID-19 has been affecting human beings since the end of 2019. Studying the characteristics of a COVID-19 outbreak is significant because it will add to the knowledge that is necessary for protecting the general public and controlling future viral outbreaks. The aims of the present research are to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand depending on the distance from the outbreak center by using a differential equation, to construct a probability density function from the solution of the differential equation, and to prove the theorem for the probability density function depending on the distance from the outbreak. The least-squares-error method is adopted to estimate the parameters of the function describing the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, a cumulative distribution function, a quantile function, a sojourn function, a hazard function, the median, the expected value, variance, skewness, and kurtosis are derived, and their practicability is shown. Applying the exponentially weighted moving average control chart to monitor a COVID-19 outbreak based on distance is proposed and compared with monitoring the COVID-19 outbreak based on time. The results show that using the former more quickly detected the out-of-control first passage time of the COVID-19 outbreak than the latter.


Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-SPER-012

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COVID-19 Outbreak; Predictive Model; Probabilistic Analysis; Control Chart; First Passage Time.


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DOI: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-SPER-012


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