Enhancing the Approach to Forecasting the Dynamics of Socio-Economic Development during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Sergey A. Pobyvaev, Vladimir V. Eremin, Tural S. Gaibov, Evgeny V. Zolotarev


This study reveals the approach to scaling socio-economic indicators to ensure economic security through regional budget expenditures to the GRP ratio example. Indicator choice is conditioned by the necessity to determine the degree of the federal center's rational influence on the regional strategic goals of sustainable development. The study aims to develop and test the system for assessing the dynamics of Russian socio-economic development based on the authors' interpretation of the scaling factor values. The main research method is scaling, which provides additional perspectives reflected by preserving proportions when changing the target parameters. The new method's effectiveness is confirmed by calculating the scaling factor. Its value interpretation gives a tool for assessing the effectiveness of the strategy development system and its economic security. The study's relevance is due to adaptation to global transformations based on the management system's capability to act under various crisis scenarios and make anti-crisis decisions important for the Russian economy. The findings improve the basis for implementing a sustainable strategic planning system and strengthening national security in the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings make it possible to predict the further evolution of the relationships between indicator groups in order to increase the role of per capita budgetary expenditures in GRP.


Doi: 10.28991/esj-2022-SPER-08

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Socio-Economic Development; Sustainable Development; Scaling Factor; Strategic Planning.


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DOI: 10.28991/esj-2022-SPER-08


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Copyright (c) 2021 Sergey Alekseevich Pobyvaev, Vladimir Vladimirovich Eremin, Tural Sokhbat oglu Gaibov, Evgeny Vladimirovich Zolotarev